The natural resources and community infrastructure of the Mid-Coast region of Oregon may be susceptible to vulnerabilities caused by climate change stressors that are affecting temperature, precipitation, hydrology, sea level, and coastal ocean conditions in the Mid-Coast. The following projections are based on the 2019 study conducted by the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute (Dalton et al. 2019), the USACE 2020 Hydroclimate Vulnerability Assessment, and other resources. 

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The following online resources are available for visualizing past and projected climate and hydrology:

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• http://www.occri.net/ (Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, including 2019 Mid-Coast Study)

• https://climatetoolbox.org/ (Oregon State University Climates Impacts Research Consortium web tools to visualize past and projected climate and hyrology in the United States)

• https://www.climatecentral.org/go/ (Climate Central, including 2016 sea level change assessment for Mid-Coast)

• https://cig.uw.edu/ (University of Washington Climate Impacts Group, including planning level implementation measures to enhance resiliency)

• https://climate.northwestknowledge.net/IntegratedScenarios/ (Integrated Solutions - climate scenarios for the Northwest)

• https://science2017.globalchange.gov (Climate Science Special Report - Fourth National Climate Assessment)

• https://riskfinder.climatecentral.org/ (Evaluating sea level rise and coastal flood risk)

• https://www.usace.army.mil/corpsclimate/ (USACE tools for addressing inland hydrologic changes; 2020 Hydroclimate Vulnerability Assessment)

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(Summary from USACE 2020 Hydroclimate Vulnerability Assessment):

In general, changes in climate variables will likely lead to increased risk of more frequent and extreme climate driven phenomena such as droughts, floods, and/or fires. Rising ambient temperatures are projected to add a direct stress to ecological resources in the Mid-Coast’s natural areas. The warming temperature regimes will most likely lead to altered hydrologic patterns as well. Wet seasons will likely become wetter, and the dry seasons will experience even less precipitation and, more importantly, lower base flows in the surrounding tributary creeks and rivers. Drier conditions in the summertime will drive increased chance and severity of wildfires as exemplified in the recent historic fires experienced by the Mid-Coast in September 2020. Wetter conditions in the winter are likely to increase flooding in the flat lowland areas of the Mid-Coast. Areas denuded by increased wildfire will experience higher runoff and will likely lead to increased sediment transport in the rivers, as well as mudslides from unstable hills and escarpments. Changes in future hydroclimate metrics, such as lower summer streamflow, are likely to have direct and adverse impacts on Mid-Coast water quality and supply infrastructure. Future projections (see bullets below) point to increased summertime temperatures as well as less available streamflow. These conditions are likely to lead to future water supply shortfalls are likely to become more common, and there will be less water to replenish lakes and recharge ground water.